Podcast
India’s Growth Story: Why the Economy Is Poised for the Next Leap: Dr. Arun Singh
In a conversation with Vivek Law on Simple Hai! Dr. Arun Singh, Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet India, discussed how geopolitical tensions, trade realignments, artificial intelligence (AI) and climate-related disruptions are reshaping the global economy. He said India has important structural advantages, including its demographic dividend, rising investment and export diversification and India could grow at 6.5% to 7% over the next two to three years, but sustaining that momentum will require stronger private investment, better employment opportunities and faster technology adoption. However, he cautioned that the country must address persistent employment challenges and improve productivity to sustain long-term growth.
A New Normal of Economic Disruption
Singh said economic cycles have always shaped growth, with periods of expansion followed by slowdowns. Past shocks, including the 1971 oil crisis and the 2008 financial crisis, demonstrate how global events can affect economies over time.
Today, geopolitical tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, tariff disputes and technological change have made disruptions more frequent. Faster information flows also mean that economic developments can influence businesses, markets and households almost immediately.
However, this speed has a downside. Information overload can fuel market hype and anxiety, affecting business decisions and economic activity.
Singh described the current environment as a “hyper-disrupted world”, where governments, businesses and individuals must continually adapt to avoid falling behind.
India’s Growth Outlook Depends on Investment
Despite global uncertainty, Singh expects India’s GDP to grow between 6.5% and 7% over the next two to three years. He said temporary pressures, such as geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility, must be distinguished from longer-term economic strengths.
India’s demographic dividend, export diversification, improving investment rates and household savings provide a foundation for future growth. Singh also highlighted an increase in gross fixed capital formation from around 7% to 12%, as discussed during the interview.
However, growth above 7% will require stronger private investment and a reduction in temporary economic pressures.
Singh stressed that investment matters beyond headline GDP figures. New investment expands productive capacity, creates jobs and raises household incomes. These gains can then support consumption and generate further economic activity.
Inflation Leaves Limited Room for Interest Rate Changes
Singh said policymakers face a difficult balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.
He distinguished cost-push inflation, driven by higher input costs such as oil, from demand-pull inflation, which occurs when demand outpaces supply. He argued that India’s current inflationary pressures are largely cost-driven, making interest rate increases less effective.
Food inflation above 6%, as cited in the discussion, particularly affects rural households. Meanwhile, producers face higher input costs but cannot always pass the full increase on to consumers, putting pressure on profit margins.
Higher interest rates could further increase borrowing costs and slow the recovery in private investment.
Singh therefore favoured a cautious “wait and watch” approach to monetary policy, alongside government efforts to strengthen supply chains and sustain demand.
Rupee Volatility and Foreign Capital Flows
Law also raised concerns about the rupee’s weakness and foreign capital outflows.
Singh attributed the pressure partly to India’s dependence on imported oil, which he said accounts for around 85% of consumption, and to global capital flows responding to differences in interest rates.
He argued that India does not face a fundamental internal balance of payments crisis, but its import-heavy trade deficit and changing capital flows create challenges.
Sharp currency movements can also affect business confidence and complicate foreign currency funding for Indian companies.
Singh called for faster reforms to attract long-term global capital. Improvements in infrastructure, ease of doing business and workforce skills, he said, will be important as countries compete for investment.
AI and Innovation Need Better Commercialisation
India has considerable potential in technology and innovation, but Singh believes it must do more to turn ideas into commercially successful products.
He noted that India ranks sixth globally in patents, as cited during the conversation, but faces gaps in commercialisation, testing, prototyping and scaling new technologies.
These weaknesses could limit India’s ability to compete in strategic industries such as semiconductors, where countries including China and Taiwan have developed strong capabilities.
Singh called for greater investment in skills and technology adoption, with businesses taking a long-term view of returns. He warned that failing to adapt to AI and the fourth industrial revolution could leave India behind during a major period of technological change.
Employment and Women’s Participation Remain Concerns
Employment emerged as one of the biggest challenges in India’s growth story.
Singh put India’s labour force participation rate at around 55%, meaning a substantial share of working-age people do not participate in the labour market. He highlighted a sharp gender gap: male participation stands at around 75%, while female participation is approximately 33%.
He described this imbalance as effectively running the economy on “one engine”.
Youth unemployment, which Singh cited at around 9.9%, also reflects difficulties in moving from education to employment. He called for targeted training that helps young people develop skills relevant to available jobs.
Singh said governments, businesses and individuals all have a role in addressing these challenges. Private investment and infrastructure development must create sustainable employment, while individuals need opportunities to enter and progress in the labour market.
He also called for workers to move from lower-productivity agriculture towards manufacturing and construction. Agriculture employs around 40% of workers but grows at approximately 3.6%, while manufacturing growth was cited at around 9% to 12%.
Increasing women’s participation in paid work could further raise household incomes and consumption, strengthening the broader economy.
India Must Adapt to a Changing Global Order
Discussing US-China tensions and shifting global trade relationships, Singh said countries are competing to position themselves within emerging growth centres as mature economies face slower growth.
India must expand trade partnerships, diversify exports, reduce import dependence and continue modernising infrastructure. Singh also emphasised the need to prepare industries and workers for AI-driven technological change.
He cautioned against copying older growth models without adapting them to current geopolitical and technological realities.
Without deeper structural reforms, India risks settling into a low-growth trajectory of around 6.5% to 7%, limiting improvements in per capita income. Sustained progress will require balancing domestic reforms with changing global supply chains and deglobalisation pressures.
Sustaining Growth Beyond the Headline Numbers
Singh’s outlook combines confidence in India’s long-term potential with caution about the challenges ahead. Demographics, investment and export diversification offer important advantages, but their benefits depend on creating productive jobs, improving skills and helping businesses adopt new technologies.
For India, the task is not simply to maintain a strong GDP growth rate. It is to translate economic expansion into higher household incomes, wider employment opportunities and more inclusive prosperity.
As Singh explained during the conversation, economic change affects everyone. How governments, companies and individuals respond to a hyper-disrupted world will help determine India’s growth trajectory in the years ahead.
Podcast
REITs Can Make Commercial Real Estate More Accessible to Retail Investors
The Chairperson of the Indian REITs Association explains how REITs offer income, liquidity and diversification, making commercial real estate more accessible to retail investors.
In a conversation on Simple Hai! with Vivek Law, Shirish Godbole, Chairperson of the Indian REITs Association and CEO of Knowledge Realty Trust, explained how Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) can help retail investors access commercial property. The discussion covered income potential, liquidity, mutual fund access and India’s office market, where demand from global capability centres (GCCs) continues to grow.
From Physical Property to Listed Investments
Real estate remains popular in India, but owning a property is not the only way to invest in it. Residential properties may offer rental income and appreciation, yet rental yields can be low. Maintenance, taxes and the time needed to sell can also affect returns.
REITs pool income-generating properties into professionally managed, exchange-listed investment vehicles. Investors can buy and sell units through a demat account, much like shares, without having to purchase or manage a building themselves.
Commercial properties, particularly offices, can earn rent from multiple tenants. After meeting operating expenses and other obligations, the trust distributes cash flows to unit holders. Investors may also benefit from changes in property valuations and portfolio growth through acquisitions, development or improvements.
Income, Liquidity and Distributions
Law asked how REIT distributions compare with rental income from residential property. Godbole said REITs offer exposure to commercial real estate without the responsibilities of managing tenants or maintaining buildings.
Under the regulatory framework discussed, REITs must distribute at least 90% of their net distributable cash flows to unit holders. Distributions are generally quarterly, though amounts and tax treatment can vary. Godbole cited yields of around 6% as a broad illustration, while stressing that investors should consider taxes, costs and the underlying investment. Returns are not guaranteed.
Listed REIT units can generally be traded on stock exchanges during market hours, unlike physical property, which may take time to sell. However, unit prices can fluctuate and investors may face capital losses.
A Small Investor Base and the Need for Awareness
Godbole said India has fewer than five lakh REIT investors, compared with around six crore mutual fund investors cited during the discussion. He sees this gap as a sign of limited awareness. Investors familiar with shares and mutual funds may not know how REITs work or how they can fit into a diversified portfolio.
REITs are not limited to high-net-worth individuals. Investors can buy listed units through a demat account or gain exposure through mutual funds. Godbole said investor education is a priority for the Indian REITs Association and the wider industry. Financial advisers and distributors need to explain both the potential benefits and risks.
Mutual Funds Could Expand Access
Godbole said the recognition of REITs as equity products in 2026 could widen access through equity mutual funds. Previously, mutual funds accessed REITs through certain other fund structures. Broader eligibility could help more investors gain indirect exposure through professionally managed portfolios.
He also highlighted cost transparency. Investors can buy listed REIT units directly without the traditional commission structure associated with some products, although brokerage, applicable taxes and other transaction costs still apply. Wider adoption will depend on making REITs easier to understand and helping advisers explain their role in a portfolio.
Geopolitical Uncertainty and India’s Property Market
Law raised concerns about geopolitical tensions and their effect on commercial property valuations, particularly after pressure in parts of West Asia. Godbole said India’s market differs from those that rely heavily on overseas capital flows. Domestic economic growth and rising consumption, he argued, provide a stronger foundation for the sector.
Higher crude oil prices can weigh on growth, but Godbole does not expect India’s property market to face a sharp correction similar to declines in some overseas markets. He remains positive about office real estate demand, while acknowledging that property values can rise or fall with market conditions.
GCCs Drive Demand for Offices
Global capability centres (GCCs) are an important source of demand for office space. Godbole said India’s skilled workforce, English-language capabilities and established technology services sector make it attractive to global companies. Demand spans technology, data management, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and other specialised services. Remote and distributed working has also made it easier for international firms to build teams in India.
Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune and Gurugram benefit from large talent pools. Godbole noted that companies hiring thousands of skilled workers look for locations with established workforces and supporting infrastructure. Transport, schools, housing and entertainment also help attract and retain employees. He cited Hyderabad as an example of how investment in infrastructure and social amenities can support employment and commercial property growth.
The Next Phase of REIT Growth
Godbole sees opportunities beyond offices, including warehousing, logistics, data centres and student accommodation. During the interview, he put India’s REIT market capitalisation at roughly Rs 2 lakh crore, or around USD 20 billion. He hopes it will reach about USD 40 billion by 2030 and move towards USD 100 billion over the following decade.
The industry also wants to grow its investor base from around five lakh to 15–20 lakh over the next five to six years. Godbole said this will require sustained awareness and distribution efforts, alongside new investment products and the expansion of existing REITs.
Real Estate in a Diversified Portfolio
Godbole did not suggest that REITs should replace physical property ownership. Instead, he urged investors to consider the implications of tying up large amounts of capital in residential property solely for rental income.
REITs offer another way to access commercial real estate through distributions, potential capital appreciation and professional management. Their exchange listing provides greater flexibility than direct ownership, but does not remove investment risk. The industry’s challenge is to build public understanding and connect India’s expanding commercial property market with a broader base of investors.
Podcast
Gold Loans, MSME Credit and Digital Lending: Rakesh Singh on India’s Changing Borrowing Habits
India’s lending landscape is evolving as technology makes credit more accessible and businesses look for faster ways to raise funds. From households using gold as collateral to small businesses seeking formal credit, borrowing is becoming an important part of how individuals and enterprises manage their financial needs.
In a conversation with Vivek Law on The Simple Hai! Show, Rakesh Singh, Executive Director and CEO (NBFC) at Aditya Birla Capital, discussed the growth of gold loans, the credit gap faced by micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), the role of digital platforms in lending, and why responsible borrowing must remain a priority.
Gold Loans: Putting Household Savings to Productive Use
Gold has traditionally been an important form of savings for Indian households. Singh noted that Indian families collectively hold an estimated $5 trillion worth of gold, presenting a significant opportunity for the gold loan market.
According to Singh, the gold loan industry has grown considerably over the past two to three years, partly because rising gold prices have increased the value of the collateral borrowers can offer. He cited an industry size of around ₹19 lakh crore, with NBFCs accounting for approximately ₹4 lakh crore and banks making up the remainder.
Gold loans can help people access funds without selling family jewellery. Singh explained that borrowers often use these loans to invest in their businesses or pay for their children’s education, making them a source of funds for specific financial needs rather than everyday consumption.
He also highlighted the potential in semi-urban and rural areas, as well as Tier 3 and Tier 4 markets, where access to such lending products can expand further.
Trust Is Key to the Gold Loan Business
Borrowing against gold involves more than a financial transaction. For many families, jewellery carries emotional and generational value, making trust an essential part of the process.
Singh said established brands can help customers feel more confident about pledging their gold. Transparency, responsible handling of jewellery and a customer-first approach are important to building that confidence.
He also pointed to a geographical shift in the market. While gold lending was previously concentrated in southern states, Singh said growth is increasingly visible in northern, eastern and central India, including markets such as Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
For Aditya Birla Capital, entering this segment is an opportunity to expand its lending presence across the country while focusing on customer trust and responsible growth.
MSMEs Continue to Face a Credit Gap
Access to formal credit remains a challenge for many small businesses. Singh observed that some MSMEs continue to borrow from friends, family or local sources, sometimes at significantly higher rates, because they cannot easily access suitable formal financing.
He said banks, NBFCs and fintech companies each have a role to play in addressing this gap. Rather than simply competing with one another, these institutions need to reach different customer segments and offer products suited to their requirements.
Speed is another important factor. For a small business, delays in accessing funds can affect day-to-day operations and growth plans. Lenders therefore need to combine appropriate credit assessment with efficient processes.
Singh also shared that approximately 57–58% of Aditya Birla Capital’s loan book, which he referred to as around ₹1.70 lakh crore during the discussion, was directed towards MSMEs.
How Digital Platforms Are Changing Lending
Digital infrastructure is making it easier for lenders to assess small businesses that may previously have had limited access to formal credit.
Singh highlighted the role of digital payments, Aadhaar-based verification, PAN linkages, GST records and credit bureau information in helping lenders understand customers and their financial activity. As more businesses use digital payment systems, lenders can gain a clearer picture of their transactions and banking behaviour.
Aditya Birla Capital developed its Udyog Plus digital platform to serve MSMEs. Singh said the platform had close to 2.4 million registered businesses at the time of the conversation.
Through digital processes, some smaller loans can be assessed, approved and disbursed within minutes. Larger or more complex applications may still require intervention from branches and credit managers.
Digital platforms can also help businesses access services beyond financing, including support related to accounting and human resources.
Digital Lending Must Be Matched With Responsible Borrowing
Technology has made it easier for customers to access credit, including through digital platforms and financing options offered during online purchases. However, Singh cautioned that easier access to loans also brings risks.
When customers take multiple loans from different lenders, their overall debt burden can rise. Singh stressed that lenders need to monitor a borrower’s leverage not just when approving a loan, but also after the money has been disbursed.
For borrowers, understanding repayment capacity is equally important. People should assess how much they can repay, when their income is likely to arrive and whether the repayment schedule suits their financial circumstances. This can be particularly important for those with irregular or seasonal earnings.
Singh also emphasised the importance of awareness around credit scores and repayment discipline. Delayed payments can affect a borrower’s credit record and future access to loans.
The Future of Lending Depends on Access and Awareness
India’s growing economy, expanding digital infrastructure and changing borrowing needs are creating opportunities for lenders. Gold loans can help households unlock funds against an existing asset, while better access to formal credit can support small businesses.
But greater access alone is not enough. As Singh explained, lenders must understand the customer segments they serve, manage risks carefully and ensure that credit reaches borrowers whose needs and repayment capacity align with the product.
For borrowers, the message is equally clear: a loan should serve a financial purpose, and taking one should always involve a clear understanding of its cost and repayment obligations.
Podcast
Simple Hai! @ 100: Celebrating a Milestone in Making Finance Simple
From financial awareness to financial confidence, Simple Hai! marks 100 episodes with a celebration of conversations, learning and the people behind the journey. A hundred episodes is more than a number. For Simple Hai!, it represents years of conversations aimed at making money easier to understand. The milestone was celebrated with the Simple Hai! @ 100 event, bringing together the people who have shaped, supported and powered the show. The celebration reflected on the journey of building a financial education platform around one simple idea: finance does not have to feel complicated.
From Awareness To Confidence
Over its journey, Simple Hai! has explored subjects ranging from investing and wealth creation to retirement planning and everyday money decisions.
The show’s conversations have also reflected how India’s financial landscape has changed.
Mutual funds, investing and personal finance have become more accessible to younger audiences. Digital platforms have further changed how people learn about money.
The show has reached audiences beyond India’s major metros, with viewers across more than 15 countries.
It has also crossed 38 million impressions and nearly 5 million views, reflecting the growing demand for accessible financial education.
The People Behind Simple Hai!
The celebration also recognised the team working behind the camera.
Co-founders Aparna Joshi, Harish Patil and Deepak Karna joined Law during the event, highlighting the collaborative effort behind the platform.
The wider OneNative Studio team was also brought on stage as part of the celebration.
That moment reinforced an important part of the show’s journey.
A finance platform may have a host at the centre, but building 100 episodes requires researchers, producers, editors, designers and everyone working behind the scenes.
A Conversation With Ashishkumar Chauhan
Ashishkumar Chauhan, MD and CEO of the National Stock Exchange, also joined the celebrations through a conversation and message recognising the milestone.
He highlighted the role of financial media in making investment conversations more accessible.
The discussion also looked at how Indian investors have changed over the years.
Law recalled a time when mutual funds were far less familiar to ordinary investors. Today, financial products and investment information are significantly more accessible.
The challenge has consequently shifted from access to understanding.
The Philosophy Behind The Show
One recurring idea from the celebration was the importance of knowledge.
A story from India’s financial markets captured that philosophy particularly well.
Veteran brokers once suggested that while people may worship Lakshmi, the goddess of wealth, they should remember Saraswati, the goddess of knowledge, every day.
For Simple Hai!, that idea fits the journey.
Financial confidence cannot come only from having access to products. It also requires knowledge, discipline and the confidence to ask questions.
What’s Next For Simple Hai!?
Reaching 100 episodes is being treated as a milestone rather than a finish line.
The platform plans to explore artificial intelligence and other technologies to make financial education more accessible.
The newly launched Simple Hai! website will also bring together its podcasts and financial education content.
As the show enters its next phase, its central promise remains unchanged.
Make finance simpler. Make financial conversations more accessible. And help more Indians become confident with their money.
For Simple Hai!, 100 episodes are therefore less about looking back and more about asking what comes next.
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