Connect with us

Podcast

Economist Madhavi Arora on India’s Economic Evolution: Geopolitics, Volatility, and the Road Ahead

Published

on

Economist Madhavi Arora on India’s Economic Evolution: Geopolitics, Volatility, and the Road Ahead

A comprehensive analysis of India’s evolving economic landscape, from market volatility and private sector investment hurdles to job creation challenges and the future of inflation

In an interview on the Simple Hai! show, hosted by Vivek Law, Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, provided a comprehensive analysis of India’s economic landscape, delving into market volatility, the nuances of sector rotation, challenges in private sector investment and job creation, and the future of inflation. Arora, an accomplished economist with extensive experience in capital markets across major financial institutions like Edelweiss Securities, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Quant Capital and JP Morgan, offered a top down macroeconomic perspective that aimed to enhance understanding for both seasoned investors and the common citizen.

Embracing Volatility and Geopolitical Realities

Arora commenced the discussion by highlighting that volatility was going to stay in the markets. She explained that while initial policy announcements, such as tariffs, created significant market impact, their incremental effect tended to diminish over time as markets began to take them for granted. From an economist’s perspective, Arora asserted that the ongoing dynamic, particularly concerning US policy stances like those under Donald Trump, was primarily a geopolitical story rather than a purely economic one. She observed that the US did not want China to become a big superpower, viewing the power shift of the last one or two decades as a core geopolitical play rather than an economic one. This, she added, was a second or third order problem for America. Despite this, she acknowledged that volatility would continue to impact markets, leading to increased scrutiny of sector and country exposure. Arora believed that this trade dynamic was a long term game, likely stretching two or three more years, and needed to be understood as a geopolitical play driven by a power shift where the US did not want to lose its hegemony.

Navigating Sector Rotation and Consumption Trends

Investment teams frequently seek Arora’s guidance on sector rotation, which she described as a key concern. Post COVID, India’s growth story unfolded in two distinct phases: an initial massive increase in global demand and an export boom, from which India, despite not being a major global exporter of goods, still benefited. This was followed by a significant rotation towards investment, with the Government of India substantially increasing capital expenditure.

More recently, the focus had shifted to the consumption story, though it remained “patchy”. Arora noted that in the early post COVID period, there was a surge in premium consumption, driven by access savings and a K shaped recovery globally, leading people to favour premium sectors over staples. Subsequently, an increase in middle income consumption occurred, largely due to salary increases in the IT and BFSI sectors. However, in the last year and a half, urban consumption had stagnated, and the rural economy had been struggling even before COVID 19. This made navigating consumption stories in equity markets complex, requiring consideration of stable versus premium consumption and trends in the upper middle and rural segments.

Inflation: A Healthy 4% as the New Normal

Addressing the crucial issue of inflation, Arora stated that for a growing economy like India, a 4 to 6% inflation rate was a very healthy number. She commended the Reserve Bank of India and the Government of India for their “incredible job” in managing inflation over the last decade, particularly food inflation, despite weather related volatilities. She noted the government’s effective control over hoarding of non perishable goods, which had shown positive results for consumers.

Arora explained that inflation was a function of both demand and supply. While supply side issues, such as weather impacts on food prices, caused temporary spikes, core inflation, excluding food and intoxicants, which reflected underlying demand, had actually been running quite low for some time. This, she attributed to policymakers tightening their balance sheets, leading to some demand contraction. Looking ahead, Arora firmly stated that for India’s evolution over the next five to ten years, 4% was going to be the “new normal” for average inflation, considering it a healthy and manageable figure. She added that as India’s economy matured and production became more efficient, inflation could potentially decrease further.

Beyond GDP: Indicators for the Informed Citizen

Responding to the “obsession” with quarterly GDP numbers, which she described as lagged indicators, Arora explained that GDP already incorporated various high frequency data points. She cautioned against relying on single data points, as India’s complex economy often presented mixed pictures, citing examples like sluggish passenger vehicle sales juxtaposed with healthy GST collections.

For a long term view, Arora advised smoothing out data by looking at three or six month averages to identify trends rather than daily noise or seasonal fluctuations. She highlighted several key indicators she closely monitored:

Rural sector wages and the commentary from large companies with significant rural exposure, such as HUL, over several quarters.

Overall employment generation.

Fiscal and monetary policy indicators, including the government’s monthly fiscal accounts, expenditure, revenue, capex, revenue expenditure, and the RBI’s monthly balance sheet. These, she explained, were crucial for understanding net spending in the economy, which had a multiplier effect on consumption and investment.

Arora concluded that while high frequency indicators would always present a noisy picture, understanding policy making and its impact on real sector data was paramount for making informed investment decisions or comprehending the economic cycle. She stressed that trying to gauge the economy from isolated data points would prevent one from ever forming a cohesive investment thesis.

The interview concluded with Vivek Law acknowledging the significant contributions of women economists in India, including Madhavi Arora, and expressing hope for their continued sharing of knowledge.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Podcast

Simple Hai! @ 100: Celebrating a Milestone in Making Finance Simple

Published

on

Simple Hai! @ 100: Celebrating a Milestone in Making Finance Simple

From financial awareness to financial confidence, Simple Hai! marks 100 episodes with a celebration of conversations, learning and the people behind the journey. A hundred episodes is more than a number. For Simple Hai!, it represents years of conversations aimed at making money easier to understand. The milestone was celebrated with the Simple Hai! @ 100 event, bringing together the people who have shaped, supported and powered the show. The celebration reflected on the journey of building a financial education platform around one simple idea: finance does not have to feel complicated.

From Awareness To Confidence

Over its journey, Simple Hai! has explored subjects ranging from investing and wealth creation to retirement planning and everyday money decisions.

The show’s conversations have also reflected how India’s financial landscape has changed.

Mutual funds, investing and personal finance have become more accessible to younger audiences. Digital platforms have further changed how people learn about money.

The show has reached audiences beyond India’s major metros, with viewers across more than 15 countries.

It has also crossed 38 million impressions and nearly 5 million views, reflecting the growing demand for accessible financial education.

The People Behind Simple Hai!

The celebration also recognised the team working behind the camera.

Co-founders Aparna Joshi, Harish Patil and Deepak Karna joined Law during the event, highlighting the collaborative effort behind the platform.

The wider OneNative Studio team was also brought on stage as part of the celebration.

That moment reinforced an important part of the show’s journey.

A finance platform may have a host at the centre, but building 100 episodes requires researchers, producers, editors, designers and everyone working behind the scenes.

A Conversation With Ashishkumar Chauhan

Ashishkumar Chauhan, MD and CEO of the National Stock Exchange, also joined the celebrations through a conversation and message recognising the milestone.

He highlighted the role of financial media in making investment conversations more accessible.

The discussion also looked at how Indian investors have changed over the years.

Law recalled a time when mutual funds were far less familiar to ordinary investors. Today, financial products and investment information are significantly more accessible.

The challenge has consequently shifted from access to understanding.

The Philosophy Behind The Show

One recurring idea from the celebration was the importance of knowledge.

A story from India’s financial markets captured that philosophy particularly well.

Veteran brokers once suggested that while people may worship Lakshmi, the goddess of wealth, they should remember Saraswati, the goddess of knowledge, every day.

For Simple Hai!, that idea fits the journey.

Financial confidence cannot come only from having access to products. It also requires knowledge, discipline and the confidence to ask questions.

What’s Next For Simple Hai!?

Reaching 100 episodes is being treated as a milestone rather than a finish line.

The platform plans to explore artificial intelligence and other technologies to make financial education more accessible.

The newly launched Simple Hai! website will also bring together its podcasts and financial education content.

As the show enters its next phase, its central promise remains unchanged.

Make finance simpler. Make financial conversations more accessible. And help more Indians become confident with their money.

For Simple Hai!, 100 episodes are therefore less about looking back and more about asking what comes next.

Continue Reading

Podcast

Digital Gold Can Unlock India’s $5 Trillion Opportunity, Mahendra Luniya

Published

on

Digital Gold Can Unlock India's $5 Trillion Opportunity, Mahendra Luniya

Gold has long been India’s preferred store of wealth. It is bought during festivals, gifted at weddings and passed down through generations. But while Indian households continue to accumulate the precious metal, much of it remains locked away in lockers, generating little economic value.

According to Mahendra Luniya, Founder Chairman, Vighnaharta Gold Ltd., this vast stockpile of household gold represents one of India’s biggest untapped economic opportunities. Speaking on the Simple Hai! podcast hosted by veteran business journalist Vivek Law, Luniya argued that digitising gold ownership and bringing idle gold into the formal financial system could unlock liquidity, reduce import dependence and reshape how Indians invest in the precious metal.

Gold Goes Digital

Luniya compared the evolution of gold ownership to the transformation witnessed in equity markets and payments over the last two decades.

“Shares moved from paper certificates to demat accounts. Cash moved from wallets to UPI. Gold is now following the same path,” he said.

With prices touching around ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams, purchasing physical gold has become increasingly expensive for many households. Digital platforms, however, allow investors to start with significantly smaller amounts.

“You can now buy gold for as little as ₹150,” Luniya said, adding that digital ownership makes regular investing possible, much like a systematic investment plan (SIP). Instead of waiting to accumulate enough money to buy jewellery or coins, investors can gradually build their gold holdings over time.

From Investment to Jewellery

While digital gold is often viewed as a substitute for physical ownership, Luniya believes it actually complements traditional buying habits.

He explained that investors can accumulate gold digitally over several years and eventually convert those holdings into jewellery whenever required, particularly for weddings or family occasions.

A key innovation enabling this transition is the Electronic Gold Receipt (EGR), an exchange-traded instrument backed by physical gold stored in regulated vaults. According to Luniya, EGRs could eventually allow investors to transfer gold directly from their demat account to a jeweller, paying only the making charges or any additional quantity required.

“This makes gold accumulation far more efficient while still allowing families to eventually own physical jewellery,” he said.

Trust Through Standardisation

Luniya also highlighted the impact of mandatory hallmarking in improving consumer confidence.

Earlier, buyers often had little certainty about the purity of jewellery, with many discovering years later that ornaments sold as 22-carat gold were of lower quality. Today, BIS hallmarking and digital verification have standardised quality, making transactions significantly more transparent.

He believes this increased trust provides the foundation for wider adoption of digital gold ownership.

Unlocking a Sleeping Asset

According to Luniya, India’s privately held gold is effectively a “sleeping asset.”

While households continue buying gold every year, the country also imports hundreds of tonnes annually, placing pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

“If even a small portion of the gold already lying in Indian homes becomes financially productive, it can release enormous liquidity into the economy,” he said.

That liquidity, he argued, could support businesses, improve access to credit and reduce dependence on fresh imports.

Rather than encouraging people to stop buying gold, Luniya advocates changing how it is accumulated and utilised.

Lessons From History

During the discussion, Luniya referred to historical examples to underline gold’s strategic importance.

He cited the United States’ gold policies during the Great Depression and India’s decision to pledge gold reserves during the 1991 balance-of-payments crisis as examples of how gold has served as a critical financial asset during periods of economic stress.

His broader point was that gold should not merely remain locked away but should be capable of supporting economic activity whenever required.

Why Gold Remains Relevant

The conversation also touched upon the resurgence of gold globally.

Luniya noted that central banks across the world have increased their gold purchases amid geopolitical tensions, rising sovereign debt and efforts to diversify reserves beyond the US dollar.

Against this backdrop, he believes India’s own household gold reserves can play a far greater role in strengthening the country’s financial resilience.

Among the various investment avenues available today—including Gold ETFs, digital gold and other market-linked products—he identified Electronic Gold Receipts as one of the most promising developments because they combine the security of physical gold with the convenience of electronic ownership.

The Road Ahead

Luniya believes younger investors are already leading the shift towards digital assets.

Unlike previous generations, who primarily associated gold with jewellery, today’s investors are increasingly comfortable owning financial assets electronically while retaining the flexibility to convert them into physical form whenever required.

For him, the future of gold lies not in replacing tradition but in modernising it.

Families will continue buying jewellery for emotional and cultural reasons, but the process of saving and investing in gold is likely to become increasingly digital. If that transition gathers pace, Luniya believes India’s vast household gold reserves could evolve from being a passive store of wealth into a productive financial asset—one that benefits not only individual investors but the broader economy as well.

Continue Reading

Podcast

Why Market Corrections May Be the Best Time to Invest, Not Exit

Published

on

Why Market Corrections May Be the Best Time to Invest, Not Exit

Markets have spent much of the past year moving sideways. Global conflicts, tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions have kept investors on edge, while many first-time participants who entered during the post-pandemic rally are questioning whether equities remain the right place to build wealth.

For many, a prolonged phase of muted returns feels uncomfortable. But according to Chintan Haria, Principal – Investment Strategy at ICICI Prudential AMC, these are often the very phases that lay the foundation for future wealth creation.

Speaking to Vivek Law on Simple Hai!, Haria argued that investors should view market corrections not as reasons to abandon equities, but as opportunities to strengthen their portfolios. While recent market performance may have tested patience, he believes India’s long-term growth story remains firmly intact.

Don’t Mistake Consolidation for Weakness

Indian equities delivered extraordinary returns between 2020 and 2024, fuelled by strong corporate earnings, robust domestic participation and improving economic fundamentals. After such a sharp rally, a period of consolidation was almost inevitable.

According to Haria, investors should not confuse a consolidation phase with a deterioration in market fundamentals. Instead, corrections often help bring valuations back to more reasonable levels.

He points out that large-cap companies, particularly in sectors such as banking, financial services, information technology and energy, have become far more attractive than they were at the market’s peak. For long-term investors, such phases often provide better entry opportunities than periods of market euphoria.

Haria also cautions against comparing India’s short-term performance with markets such as the United States, Taiwan or South Korea. Every economy goes through different business cycles, and leadership among global markets changes over time. Judging investments based on a few months of performance can distract investors from the bigger picture.

SIPs Continue to Anchor Indian Markets

One of the biggest concerns during the recent slowdown has been the increase in SIP stoppages. However, Haria does not believe this signals a structural shift in investor behaviour.

He argues that India’s rising financial awareness and growing household savings continue to support long-term investing through mutual funds. More importantly, SIPs have evolved beyond being just a convenient investment method, they have become one of the key stabilising forces in Indian equity markets.

Regular monthly inflows from retail investors have helped cushion the impact of foreign institutional investor (FII) selling during periods of volatility. This steady domestic participation has made Indian markets more resilient than in previous decades.

His advice to investors is straightforward: if markets are correcting, that is precisely when SIP discipline becomes even more valuable. Stopping investments during periods of uncertainty may mean missing the opportunity to accumulate units at lower prices.

Active and Passive Investing Can Coexist

As passive investing gains popularity, many investors wonder whether they shoruld abandon actively managed funds altogether.

Haria believes this is the wrong way to look at the debate.

Active and passive strategies serve different purposes and can complement each other within the same portfolio. Active funds allow experienced fund managers to identify companies and sectors they believe can outperform the broader market, while passive funds offer low-cost exposure to indices or specific investment themes.

He suggests that investors should not focus solely on expense ratios when choosing passive products. Selecting the right benchmark, understanding the composition of the index and evaluating tracking efficiency are equally important.

A low-cost investment that tracks an unsuitable index may ultimately be less rewarding than paying a slightly higher fee for a product that better aligns with an investor’s financial objectives.

Asset Allocation Matters More Than Market Timing

Another recurring theme during the conversation was the importance of asset allocation.

Many investors become overly optimistic after markets rally and overly pessimistic during corrections. This emotional cycle often leads to buying high and selling low.

Haria believes asset allocation strategies such as balanced advantage funds and multi-asset funds can help address this behavioural challenge. These products automatically adjust equity exposure based on market conditions, reducing equity allocations when valuations become expensive and increasing them when markets correct.

Such an approach helps remove emotions from investment decisions and encourages disciplined wealth creation over the long term.

Simplicity Is Often the Best Starting Point

With hundreds of mutual fund schemes available today, first-time investors often struggle to decide where to begin.

Rather than trying to identify the next top-performing fund, Haria recommends starting with a simple SIP in diversified categories such as flexi-cap funds, large-cap index funds or balanced advantage funds.

As investors gain confidence and experience market cycles firsthand, they can gradually diversify into mid-cap, small-cap or thematic funds.

He warns against one of the most common investing mistakes, choosing funds solely because they delivered the highest returns over the previous year.

Using a memorable analogy, Haria says investing based only on past returns is like trying to drive a car by looking only at the rear-view mirror. Past performance provides useful context but should never be the sole basis for future investment decisions.

Domestic Investors Are Reshaping Indian Markets

One of the most significant structural changes in recent years has been the rise of domestic investors.

For decades, Indian equity markets were heavily influenced by foreign institutional investors. Today, consistent inflows from domestic mutual funds and retail investors have emerged as an effective counterbalance.

Even when FIIs have reduced their exposure because of global uncertainties or shifting valuations, domestic investors have continued investing through SIPs and mutual funds, helping stabilise market sentiment.

According to Haria, this reflects the increasing maturity of Indian investors and the country’s evolving investment culture.

Patience Remains the Greatest Investment Advantage

Towards the end of the discussion, the conversation shifted beyond markets to personal finance.

Drawing from his own experiences, Haria emphasised the importance of living within one’s means and resisting lifestyle inflation, especially during the early years of a career. Instead of immediately increasing spending with every salary hike, he encourages young professionals to prioritise investing and allow compounding to work over decades.

Luxury purchases can always come later. The habit of disciplined investing, however, is most powerful when cultivated early.

Ultimately, Haria believes the principles of successful investing have remained remarkably consistent despite changing market conditions.

Invest regularly. Diversify sensibly. Avoid chasing yesterday’s winners. Ignore short-term noise.

Continue Reading

Trending